Just raw/intermediate inputs, not processed HREE. Leached from ionic clay, only economically extractable formation which PRC has ample access (hence dominance), geologically limited outside Asia/Australia (AKA economically extractable heavy rare earth, is in fact, rare). Again, partially processed, looks 2% of global output. Still has to be sent to separation plant for final processing, i.e. someone has to reproduce the entire PRC solvent-extraction stack at industrial scale, which is TBD from USA Rare Earth. This like upstart semi company getting wafers, but have to invent litho machine to print anything - the entire tech stack is Chinese, refined in PRC over last 30 years - needs to be replicated (and improved to US environment standards). USARE has a small batch pilot run, which is TRL5/6, i.e. theoretically where PRC EUV prototype is. This basically PR release about securing dirt.
I've heard that it could cost well north of a trillion to actually wean off China's supply, if it's even possible: this stuff is key to military strategy, and the US dependency on rare earths from China prevents it from being able to attack China militarily. So China's obvious move, if the US is remotely serious about extricating itself from dependency, is to use the same export controls the US has leveraged on AI chips. Endgame in an escalatory path is US high tech, including the defense sector, being hollowed out.
On top of all this, the rare earths industry in China has a serious patent moat. The US would likely need to violate patents to match China's level of production, which would basically be a huge gift to China since they'd then be justified in doing the same.
It's not that I don't think US/geopoltical west can't setup their own supply chain, but it's going to be long and hard road, maybe longer and harder than PRC EUV, and news releases like this shouldn't be misconstrued for progress on the hard bits.
Like PRC REE is industrial process(es), iterated over 30+ years, via magnitude larger dedicated talent pipeline (i.e. PRC uni of mining has more graduates than all US mining programs combined). Supported by entire mining cities like Batou or Rare Earth "Kingdom" cities like Ganzhou, Longyan with 100,000s of talent supported by 1,000,000s up/mid/down stream. But it's fine, USARE with <300 employees getting some rocks from Serra Verde is on it. /s
But on the other hand, I don't know, maybe AI will make tweaking industrial processes faster. US just needs to reshore fraction of HREE, maybe just need fraction of the talent and figures out how to automate the process because software somehow 10,000% productivity per head, and USARE will just need watchdog bite security guard if he gets too close to the AI think box.
This is in theory good for everyone. With China using rare earths as a means to control the market as well as exploiting myanmar to mine them, finding a reliable secondary source was vital for national security.
Now whether or not Brazil decides to raze the rainforest to fulfill the orders remains to be seen.
It's not good for everyone, definitely not for Brazil. As a Brazilian it's more important we develop the tech to extract and process rare earths than just sell it to the US as we always done to imperialistic countries since 1500.
Just raw/intermediate inputs, not processed HREE. Leached from ionic clay, only economically extractable formation which PRC has ample access (hence dominance), geologically limited outside Asia/Australia (AKA economically extractable heavy rare earth, is in fact, rare). Again, partially processed, looks 2% of global output. Still has to be sent to separation plant for final processing, i.e. someone has to reproduce the entire PRC solvent-extraction stack at industrial scale, which is TBD from USA Rare Earth. This like upstart semi company getting wafers, but have to invent litho machine to print anything - the entire tech stack is Chinese, refined in PRC over last 30 years - needs to be replicated (and improved to US environment standards). USARE has a small batch pilot run, which is TRL5/6, i.e. theoretically where PRC EUV prototype is. This basically PR release about securing dirt.
I've heard that it could cost well north of a trillion to actually wean off China's supply, if it's even possible: this stuff is key to military strategy, and the US dependency on rare earths from China prevents it from being able to attack China militarily. So China's obvious move, if the US is remotely serious about extricating itself from dependency, is to use the same export controls the US has leveraged on AI chips. Endgame in an escalatory path is US high tech, including the defense sector, being hollowed out.
On top of all this, the rare earths industry in China has a serious patent moat. The US would likely need to violate patents to match China's level of production, which would basically be a huge gift to China since they'd then be justified in doing the same.
It's not that I don't think US/geopoltical west can't setup their own supply chain, but it's going to be long and hard road, maybe longer and harder than PRC EUV, and news releases like this shouldn't be misconstrued for progress on the hard bits.
Like PRC REE is industrial process(es), iterated over 30+ years, via magnitude larger dedicated talent pipeline (i.e. PRC uni of mining has more graduates than all US mining programs combined). Supported by entire mining cities like Batou or Rare Earth "Kingdom" cities like Ganzhou, Longyan with 100,000s of talent supported by 1,000,000s up/mid/down stream. But it's fine, USARE with <300 employees getting some rocks from Serra Verde is on it. /s
But on the other hand, I don't know, maybe AI will make tweaking industrial processes faster. US just needs to reshore fraction of HREE, maybe just need fraction of the talent and figures out how to automate the process because software somehow 10,000% productivity per head, and USARE will just need watchdog bite security guard if he gets too close to the AI think box.
Does US really want to deal with pollution that comes with it?
This is in theory good for everyone. With China using rare earths as a means to control the market as well as exploiting myanmar to mine them, finding a reliable secondary source was vital for national security.
Now whether or not Brazil decides to raze the rainforest to fulfill the orders remains to be seen.
It's not good for everyone, definitely not for Brazil. As a Brazilian it's more important we develop the tech to extract and process rare earths than just sell it to the US as we always done to imperialistic countries since 1500.