China isnt that stupid. Russia is hopeless in Ukraine, theres no way they would dare try China or even Europe. America is only capable of winning against Venezuela.
Its a joke the Houthis who dont have an air force, navy or army today are laughing at the USA and all Western forces.
The USA is unable to attack by land or sea the Houthis because it is not capable to provide significant extra support to the Arabian peninsula. The real strength of the USA in the past was not their equipment but their ability to have support bases very close by. Today the only close base to the Gulf is Diego Garcia which is thousands of KM away.
We are seeing a new Dreadnought era, all current weapons systems are basically useless. Drones are the new equalizer.
Strengthening their control over most of the populated areas of the country, bogging down the Transitional Government forces in a likely-doomed attempt to hold on to their remaining towns, humiliating the Saudi air force, stirring tensions between and within Saudi and the UAE.
And that's before you even get into the question of how it affects the US/Iran conflict.
> What are Houthis winning other than terrorising shipping?
Control. They’re profiting and in power. The Houthis don’t govern with popular consent. Warlords’ politics revolve around access to weapons and the normalization of violence.
I sometimes wonder if Ukraine is to World War III what the Spanish Civil War was to WWII. However, I have also heard that Russia is a lot closer to collapse than they let on. But if they did collapse it could be very messy and I fear what Putin might do if he feels he has nothing to lose.
Ukraine is to WW3 as Belgium was to WW1. A hot, stagnant land war in the heart of the continent.
This piece is one of several I've noticed lately in the British press [1, 2], preparing the country for a broader war.
I'm deeply fucking concerned, to be frank. I'm also upset that no major political actor seems to be putting their hand up and suggesting this might be a terrible idea.
I think its fair to say everyone in the know, knows very well that Russia has not been a threat for a long time. Notice when both Ukraine invasions started, no NATO country made any large actions to prepare for an actual threat. I think that says a lot. From the beginning the USA has crippled or "helped" Ukraine just enough to let the Ukrainians slowly bleed Russia.
« From the beginning the USA has crippled or "helped" Ukraine just enough to let the Ukrainians slowly bleed Russia. »
Let's not understate the US effort here. Total aid supplied to the Ukraine, adjusted for inflation, has been more than twice the lend/lease volume supplied to the Soviet Union.
The USA is interested in a protracted war at Europe's and Russia's expense in order to MAGA. To a large extent, its GDP is one of death and destruction. This is reflected in Usanian “cultural” products such as movies, where most often the solution is presented in the form of a gun (“troubleshooting”). They pride themselves of being able to bomb everywhere (“global strike” etc). The underlying mindset is one of a robber and rapist: he takes from others what he thinks is his to enjoy.
Of course, just as the mafia don walks about in fine clothes and strives for social acclaim, the USA also wants to “look good” and portray itself not as a rapacious jerk or terrorist but as a “policeman” of sorts.
The Ukraine has indeed been socially prepared for at least two decades, and militarily since at least 2014 (#TrainToWin). Nuland said circa 2014 the USA had invested some 5 billion dollars into socially engineering the Ukraine into conflict with Russia.
The USA also employed Germany and other vassals in order to prepare the Ukraine for a war that would be waged not only against Russia but also against Germany's strategic interests (which of course was and is peaceful economic integration along the East-West axis towards China).
If the USA had any regard for “the Ukrainians” it would never have set the country up for war but instead stayed out of meddling in Eastern Europe, just as it should also have left Western Europe a long time ago.
> However, I have also heard that Russia is a lot closer to collapse than they let on.
I mean it seems like they were until someone just decided to give them huge infusion of money, remove all sanctions passed against them and throw them a huge lifeline. Oh and can't forget "remove sanctions for oligarchs".
This is where the Trump administrations mindless stupidity works in our favour. While Trump continues to prevaricate on aid and throws lifelines of paltry diesel deals, Putin will stay his hand on nuclear weapon use.
The Spanish Civil War, or the Japanese invasion of Manchuria. The US put sanctions on Japan after they invaded Manchuria, and restricted trade of items that could help them with war. That's a big part of why Japan chose to attack the US.
By reading up Moneagle's books and the recent paper from Beatriz Villarroel something up in the atmosphere will mess with the timeline to avoid further issues.
I was thinking the other day that China is playing it smart. They just have to keep doing what they are doing and they'll win.
Xi isn't doing anything ostentatious like sending his navy to the Persian gulf or overtly dropping weapons supplies in the Middle East.
After all they are going for the economic win- something that always eluded the USSR.
Let Trump hang himself and the Chinese make it out like the good guys. After all the most important thing nations want is not human rights it's stability.
Trump doesnt need to hang himself today or tomorrow, the USA military has been shown to be just as ineffective as the Russian equipments.
I think its reasonable to say as a world power, America today cannot be compared to America of WW2 or the British Empire during the 19th century. YT is full of videos making fun of Saudi Arabia being unable to defeat the Houthis, but lets not forget America which has a military budget nearly 20x larger than the Saudis also cant defeat the Houthis.
America as a super power should be able to steamroll Iran and Houthis, but it cant do much to either. Ospreys which were built because of the Iran hostage situation of the 80s, today cannot fly more than 15minutes from a base.
I think its possible to say the USA was never actually that powerful, they just looked it, similar to the USSR, and when tested they both are while deadly and destructive not actually able to convincely win. Big difference between Hollywood and reality.
I hate to agree the Chinese government is competent in foreign affairs, but it's true.
Fundamentally China isn't Russia or USA which both have a proclivity to become entangled in foreign problems. For the US (I'm american) the civil side has four strategic risks:
- weak to no show congress which has ceded war making to the executive branch
- civilian leadership who think bomb it and declare success which is naive
- the inability to stop being suckered in by our own hurbris when others say but we can't get it done without US involvement
- an economy post WWII built on cheap oil, which has tentacles into the mideast
Meanwhile after having pissed away 50 years of culture wars particularly since newt gingrich and the tea party, the US fiscal situation is deplorable.
Most maddening? We did this to ourselves. Blaming immigrants isn't the flex people think it is
Who needs people to fight wars when you've got robots? "China’s armed forces are testing humanoid robots against combat requirements and studying how the machines might fight alongside soldiers." -- MSN
China didn't elect anyone, let alone an anti-immigration populist, but their population is falling, and they don't have any plans to open up to immigration.
WWIII is all but certain and the root cause is Geopolitics of Europe/USA/UK/Russia. Look at history from the time of British Empire vs. Russia (before WWII) later Soviet Union vs. USA/Europe/UK and then Russia vs. USA/Europe/UK. The new factor in current times is China which would like nothing better than have the above combatants finish each other off, so its supremacy is automatically established.
The current example is how Ukraine was manipulated into being the sacrificial lamb in order to draw Russia into invading it thus expending its resources while USA/Europe/UK don't suffer as much.
The aim of modern propaganda is no longer to modify ideas, but to provoke action. It is no longer to change adherence to a doctrine, but to make the individual cling irrationally to a process of action.
Propaganda employs encirclement on the individual by trying to surround man by all possible routes, in the realm of feelings as well as ideas, by playing on his will or his needs through his conscious and his unconscious, and by assailing him in both his private and his public life.
Propaganda is concerned with timeliness since an individual is only moved to action if he is pushed towards a timely one by propaganda..."Operational words" are used to penetrate an individual's indifference...Incidentally, there are also the undecided, people whose opinions are vague, who form the majority of citizens within the collective. These citizens are the most susceptible to control of public opinion that is dictated by propaganda.
Political Propaganda involves techniques of influence employed by a government, a party, an administration, or a pressure group with the intention of changing the behavior of the public...The methods of political propaganda are calculated in a precise manner and its main criterion is to disseminate an ideology for the very purpose of making various political acts acceptable to the people.
Sociological propaganda aims to increase conformity with the environment that is of a collective nature by developing compliance with or defense of the established order through long term penetration and progressive adaptation by using all social currents. The propaganda element is the way of life with which the individual is permeated and then the individual begins to express it in film, writing, or art without realizing it...This propaganda reinforces the individual's way of life and represents this way of life as best. Sociological propaganda creates an indisputable criterion for the individual to make judgments of good and evil according to the order of the individual's way of life.
Information is indistinguishable from propaganda in that information is an essential element of propaganda because for propaganda to succeed it must have reference to political or economic reality. Propaganda grafts itself onto an already existing reality through "informed opinion".
Citizens are aware that political decisions affect everybody and governments cannot govern without the support, presence, pressure, or knowledge of the people. Yet the people are incapable of making long term policy so opinion must be created to follow the government because the government cannot be led by opinion. All of this describes the "Mass-Government" relationship characterized by people demanding what has already been decided, in order to appear as though the government is actually caring about what the people need.
The propagandist cannot be constrained by the ideology of his State but must operate in service of the state and be able to manipulate the ideology as if it were an object. The ideology merely provides the content for the propagandist to build off since he is limited to what already is present within the group, nation, or society. The fundamental ideologies are nationalism, socialism, communism, and democracy.
Since democracy depends on public opinion, it is clear that propaganda must be involved...However, as discussed in early chapters Ellul described the masses are incapable of making long-term foreign policy and the government needs to make these decisions in a timely manner. This is where propaganda comes into play and projects an artificial reality to the masses to satisfy their need to participate in government while the decisions are really made behind the scenes. .. Democratic regimes develop propaganda in line with its myths and prejudices. Propaganda stresses the superiority of a democratic society while intensifying the prejudices between democratic and oppressive.
> Russian strikes on Ukraine kill more than 100 civilians across the country
> As a journalist ... It was at the three-day Munich Security Conference that ended on February 20 2022
Ah yes, nothing was happening in the world in previous 30 years and some countries absolutely didn't insist on being involved in the military conflicts on the other side of the globe. Nothing happened and it was kumbyaya everywhere. And no civilian casulties, of course.
Who would actually be involved in WW3 ?
China isnt that stupid. Russia is hopeless in Ukraine, theres no way they would dare try China or even Europe. America is only capable of winning against Venezuela.
Its a joke the Houthis who dont have an air force, navy or army today are laughing at the USA and all Western forces.
The USA is unable to attack by land or sea the Houthis because it is not capable to provide significant extra support to the Arabian peninsula. The real strength of the USA in the past was not their equipment but their ability to have support bases very close by. Today the only close base to the Gulf is Diego Garcia which is thousands of KM away.
We are seeing a new Dreadnought era, all current weapons systems are basically useless. Drones are the new equalizer.
What are Houthis winning other than terrorising shipping?
Strengthening their control over most of the populated areas of the country, bogging down the Transitional Government forces in a likely-doomed attempt to hold on to their remaining towns, humiliating the Saudi air force, stirring tensions between and within Saudi and the UAE.
And that's before you even get into the question of how it affects the US/Iran conflict.
> What are Houthis winning other than terrorising shipping?
Control. They’re profiting and in power. The Houthis don’t govern with popular consent. Warlords’ politics revolve around access to weapons and the normalization of violence.
They believe they are free.
https://archive.is/Ri9lN
Would you like to know more...
I sometimes wonder if Ukraine is to World War III what the Spanish Civil War was to WWII. However, I have also heard that Russia is a lot closer to collapse than they let on. But if they did collapse it could be very messy and I fear what Putin might do if he feels he has nothing to lose.
Ukraine is to WW3 as Belgium was to WW1. A hot, stagnant land war in the heart of the continent.
This piece is one of several I've noticed lately in the British press [1, 2], preparing the country for a broader war.
I'm deeply fucking concerned, to be frank. I'm also upset that no major political actor seems to be putting their hand up and suggesting this might be a terrible idea.
Winter is coming.
[1] https://news.sky.com/story/army-chief-says-politicians-to-st...
[2] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmn0jke547r5o
I think its fair to say everyone in the know, knows very well that Russia has not been a threat for a long time. Notice when both Ukraine invasions started, no NATO country made any large actions to prepare for an actual threat. I think that says a lot. From the beginning the USA has crippled or "helped" Ukraine just enough to let the Ukrainians slowly bleed Russia.
« From the beginning the USA has crippled or "helped" Ukraine just enough to let the Ukrainians slowly bleed Russia. »
Let's not understate the US effort here. Total aid supplied to the Ukraine, adjusted for inflation, has been more than twice the lend/lease volume supplied to the Soviet Union.
The USA is interested in a protracted war at Europe's and Russia's expense in order to MAGA. To a large extent, its GDP is one of death and destruction. This is reflected in Usanian “cultural” products such as movies, where most often the solution is presented in the form of a gun (“troubleshooting”). They pride themselves of being able to bomb everywhere (“global strike” etc). The underlying mindset is one of a robber and rapist: he takes from others what he thinks is his to enjoy.
Of course, just as the mafia don walks about in fine clothes and strives for social acclaim, the USA also wants to “look good” and portray itself not as a rapacious jerk or terrorist but as a “policeman” of sorts.
The Ukraine has indeed been socially prepared for at least two decades, and militarily since at least 2014 (#TrainToWin). Nuland said circa 2014 the USA had invested some 5 billion dollars into socially engineering the Ukraine into conflict with Russia.
The USA also employed Germany and other vassals in order to prepare the Ukraine for a war that would be waged not only against Russia but also against Germany's strategic interests (which of course was and is peaceful economic integration along the East-West axis towards China).
If the USA had any regard for “the Ukrainians” it would never have set the country up for war but instead stayed out of meddling in Eastern Europe, just as it should also have left Western Europe a long time ago.
> However, I have also heard that Russia is a lot closer to collapse than they let on.
I mean it seems like they were until someone just decided to give them huge infusion of money, remove all sanctions passed against them and throw them a huge lifeline. Oh and can't forget "remove sanctions for oligarchs".
This is where the Trump administrations mindless stupidity works in our favour. While Trump continues to prevaricate on aid and throws lifelines of paltry diesel deals, Putin will stay his hand on nuclear weapon use.
If Putin uses nukes, everyone will stop trade with them. Russia would be shunned. It would be suicide.
The Spanish Civil War, or the Japanese invasion of Manchuria. The US put sanctions on Japan after they invaded Manchuria, and restricted trade of items that could help them with war. That's a big part of why Japan chose to attack the US.
By reading up Moneagle's books and the recent paper from Beatriz Villarroel something up in the atmosphere will mess with the timeline to avoid further issues.
I was thinking the other day that China is playing it smart. They just have to keep doing what they are doing and they'll win.
Xi isn't doing anything ostentatious like sending his navy to the Persian gulf or overtly dropping weapons supplies in the Middle East. After all they are going for the economic win- something that always eluded the USSR.
Let Trump hang himself and the Chinese make it out like the good guys. After all the most important thing nations want is not human rights it's stability.
Trump doesnt need to hang himself today or tomorrow, the USA military has been shown to be just as ineffective as the Russian equipments.
I think its reasonable to say as a world power, America today cannot be compared to America of WW2 or the British Empire during the 19th century. YT is full of videos making fun of Saudi Arabia being unable to defeat the Houthis, but lets not forget America which has a military budget nearly 20x larger than the Saudis also cant defeat the Houthis.
America as a super power should be able to steamroll Iran and Houthis, but it cant do much to either. Ospreys which were built because of the Iran hostage situation of the 80s, today cannot fly more than 15minutes from a base.
I think its possible to say the USA was never actually that powerful, they just looked it, similar to the USSR, and when tested they both are while deadly and destructive not actually able to convincely win. Big difference between Hollywood and reality.
I hate to agree the Chinese government is competent in foreign affairs, but it's true.
Fundamentally China isn't Russia or USA which both have a proclivity to become entangled in foreign problems. For the US (I'm american) the civil side has four strategic risks:
- weak to no show congress which has ceded war making to the executive branch
- civilian leadership who think bomb it and declare success which is naive
- the inability to stop being suckered in by our own hurbris when others say but we can't get it done without US involvement
- an economy post WWII built on cheap oil, which has tentacles into the mideast
Meanwhile after having pissed away 50 years of culture wars particularly since newt gingrich and the tea party, the US fiscal situation is deplorable.
Most maddening? We did this to ourselves. Blaming immigrants isn't the flex people think it is
The most stable systems are parliamentary democracies.
Sure, you might be switching governments often (and that's a feature, not a bug) at times, but things change slowly.
Which is what you need in a mature rich democracy.
The last thing you want is to elect hard to boot and control individuals like in presidential and semi presidential republics.
Aren’t they going to lose about half their population in the next 75 years?
That’s… problematic
Who needs people to fight wars when you've got robots? "China’s armed forces are testing humanoid robots against combat requirements and studying how the machines might fight alongside soldiers." -- MSN
That's the trend in most populations over the next 100 years anyway.
Well, not countries which have large amounts of immigration and robust systems to integrate immigrants.
Unless of course they elect anti-immigration populists and ruin their appeal. Then they're doomed to shrink.
China didn't elect anyone, let alone an anti-immigration populist, but their population is falling, and they don't have any plans to open up to immigration.
Given the course of climate change, that's likely to happen everywhere. That includes the US.
"It is often easier to not do something stupid than it is to do something smart."
WWIII is all but certain and the root cause is Geopolitics of Europe/USA/UK/Russia. Look at history from the time of British Empire vs. Russia (before WWII) later Soviet Union vs. USA/Europe/UK and then Russia vs. USA/Europe/UK. The new factor in current times is China which would like nothing better than have the above combatants finish each other off, so its supremacy is automatically established.
All the above participants use "Reflexive Control" against each other to Manipulate and Propagandize in furtherance of their goals - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflexive_control
The current example is how Ukraine was manipulated into being the sacrificial lamb in order to draw Russia into invading it thus expending its resources while USA/Europe/UK don't suffer as much.
One way to understand this is via Propaganda: The Formation of Men's Attitudes by Jacques Ellul - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda:_The_Formation_of_M...
The aim of modern propaganda is no longer to modify ideas, but to provoke action. It is no longer to change adherence to a doctrine, but to make the individual cling irrationally to a process of action.
Propaganda employs encirclement on the individual by trying to surround man by all possible routes, in the realm of feelings as well as ideas, by playing on his will or his needs through his conscious and his unconscious, and by assailing him in both his private and his public life.
Propaganda is concerned with timeliness since an individual is only moved to action if he is pushed towards a timely one by propaganda..."Operational words" are used to penetrate an individual's indifference...Incidentally, there are also the undecided, people whose opinions are vague, who form the majority of citizens within the collective. These citizens are the most susceptible to control of public opinion that is dictated by propaganda.
Political Propaganda involves techniques of influence employed by a government, a party, an administration, or a pressure group with the intention of changing the behavior of the public...The methods of political propaganda are calculated in a precise manner and its main criterion is to disseminate an ideology for the very purpose of making various political acts acceptable to the people.
Sociological propaganda aims to increase conformity with the environment that is of a collective nature by developing compliance with or defense of the established order through long term penetration and progressive adaptation by using all social currents. The propaganda element is the way of life with which the individual is permeated and then the individual begins to express it in film, writing, or art without realizing it...This propaganda reinforces the individual's way of life and represents this way of life as best. Sociological propaganda creates an indisputable criterion for the individual to make judgments of good and evil according to the order of the individual's way of life.
Information is indistinguishable from propaganda in that information is an essential element of propaganda because for propaganda to succeed it must have reference to political or economic reality. Propaganda grafts itself onto an already existing reality through "informed opinion".
Citizens are aware that political decisions affect everybody and governments cannot govern without the support, presence, pressure, or knowledge of the people. Yet the people are incapable of making long term policy so opinion must be created to follow the government because the government cannot be led by opinion. All of this describes the "Mass-Government" relationship characterized by people demanding what has already been decided, in order to appear as though the government is actually caring about what the people need.
The propagandist cannot be constrained by the ideology of his State but must operate in service of the state and be able to manipulate the ideology as if it were an object. The ideology merely provides the content for the propagandist to build off since he is limited to what already is present within the group, nation, or society. The fundamental ideologies are nationalism, socialism, communism, and democracy.
Since democracy depends on public opinion, it is clear that propaganda must be involved...However, as discussed in early chapters Ellul described the masses are incapable of making long-term foreign policy and the government needs to make these decisions in a timely manner. This is where propaganda comes into play and projects an artificial reality to the masses to satisfy their need to participate in government while the decisions are really made behind the scenes. .. Democratic regimes develop propaganda in line with its myths and prejudices. Propaganda stresses the superiority of a democratic society while intensifying the prejudices between democratic and oppressive.
any one have a non paywall link?
https://app.ft.com/content/3a56575e-ecfb-4fa9-af70-01aebd869...
> Russian strikes on Ukraine kill more than 100 civilians across the country
> As a journalist ... It was at the three-day Munich Security Conference that ended on February 20 2022
Ah yes, nothing was happening in the world in previous 30 years and some countries absolutely didn't insist on being involved in the military conflicts on the other side of the globe. Nothing happened and it was kumbyaya everywhere. And no civilian casulties, of course.
Were pie and punch served?
Thank you very much, you skipped the main part.