The P5+1, while quite imperfect so was preferable to the current situation that's almost unbelievable. This whole invasion has been a deeply stupid move on the part of the US.
Iran’s perspective seems to be that their sovereignty will continue to be threatened by Israel if the US doesn’t start using its considerable amount of leverage over Israel to force them to stand down. I’m not sure how likely this would be, but Trump said that the US would start facing drastic fuel shortages and enter a recession in the next few weeks if he didn’t sign off on the MOU (which seems like a dumb thing to say while negotiations are ongoing but whatever), so it seems like Iran has a lot of power here. Ultimately, I think Trump and Netanyahu’s decision to start this war may result in the largest shift in the Middle Eastern power balance since the post-World War II period.
Trump agreed to the MoU saying it's allies would stop attacks, including in Lebanon. Israel continues to bomb it. It's up to Trump to put pressure on Israel to stop in order to make good on his deal. It's no surprise this is instantly falling apart - Trump promised something he couldn't deliver. We can only hope that he does eventually put enough pressure on Israel to stop.
If anything, Israel is increasing its attacks on Lebanon. Ben-Gvir is making on the record comments like "For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn."
Israel absolutely seems to be taking full advantage of Trump to play utter brinkmanship.
It was astonishing to see the praise heaped on Trump by Israeli citizens and leaders, who believed he was their savior. I wonder if it's going to change now, not because he's giving up on them (which he seems to), but because they have nobody else left to rely on. Constant incoming ass kissing is effective when it comes to him, so their best strategy might be to keep going until he changes his mind again.
Iran has figured out it can make the US president look like an idiot over and over at relatively low cost to themselves, since they're already so thoroughly excluded from the rest of the world.
Well you can definitely crack Donald Trump's image but when it comes to the loss, most of the loss will be borne by common people. Oil prices will once again rise markets once again fall and AI is already taking jobs. Inflation will rise along with unemployment and bad times are coming. This is happening mostly because of the foolishness of Trump.
> He's not really up for re-election, so I'm not sure what approval numbers have to do with it
As an outsider, it seems the US midterm elections are a couple of months from now. If republicans lose, Donald Trump will most likely be impeached for all the mind numbingly high-level corruption and involvement in a pedophile ring.
Quite unlikely to get an impeachment. While there is the (long) possibility of Dems flipping the House and Senate, they will not alone have the votes to force him out without a number of Republicans to defect in the Senate. Anything is possible, but given how much insanity has already been tacitly approved, the economy would have to hit truly apocalyptic levels to expect that outcome.
Trump is already hitting disapproval levels seen during the end of W's second term. He actually is bleeding support and politically damaged due to all this.
It gets worse when you break it down into key demographics. In the same way W's presidency influenced millennials away from the GOP, Trump is doing the same for young voters today too.
Non-whites and Gen Z were plus for him in 2024. He has absolutely cratered his support in those two demos.
That tracks. My rule of thumb is that political topics have a 33% group that will never budge and the remaining 4-5% accounts for the lizard man constant[1].
> why does this make Grump look like an idiot any more
Because this time his error is at a new level. Many countries had seen their strategic reserves of gasoline seriously reduced and about to disappear, and the fertilizers (that they need to feed their population in the next year) never arrived on time. His so called "little excursion" could kill much more people than any other of his former actions. For no reason or benefit.
And Israel isn't helping at all. They backstabbed Biden when he needed their help most in the elections, and are backstabbing Trump when he is desperate for the midterms. Everybody can see that Bibi plays Trump like a violin.
I don’t think it’s that. I think Trump and the US could simply use brute force to stop Iran’s attacks, control the strait, and replace the Islamic fundamentalist regime. If they wanted to.
But that’s not profitable to Trump and his family and friends and donors. By making announcements and deals and truces all the time, they can make trades anticipating each dishonest announcement. And that makes them incredibly rich and powerful.
Trump doesn’t care if anyone thinks he’s an idiot. He’s actually doing quite well if you consider the goal to be selfish corruption.
In this case Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah, then had IDF soldiers inside Lebanon try to capture a base that Hezbollah holds. I think it’s reasonable to expect that if you sign a ceasefire and subsequently try to capture a base held by the other party of the ceasefire, they will shoot at you.
The P5+1, while quite imperfect so was preferable to the current situation that's almost unbelievable. This whole invasion has been a deeply stupid move on the part of the US.
Iran’s perspective seems to be that their sovereignty will continue to be threatened by Israel if the US doesn’t start using its considerable amount of leverage over Israel to force them to stand down. I’m not sure how likely this would be, but Trump said that the US would start facing drastic fuel shortages and enter a recession in the next few weeks if he didn’t sign off on the MOU (which seems like a dumb thing to say while negotiations are ongoing but whatever), so it seems like Iran has a lot of power here. Ultimately, I think Trump and Netanyahu’s decision to start this war may result in the largest shift in the Middle Eastern power balance since the post-World War II period.
The question ultimately becomes "How much pain is Trump willing to let the US bear on the behalf of Israel?"
But in general, the answer(and not just for reasons of Israel, but his own fragile ego) is "quite a lot".
So Iran can shield Hezbollah and other allies/proxies via its stranglehold on the strait. This is quite the shift.
Trump agreed to the MoU saying it's allies would stop attacks, including in Lebanon. Israel continues to bomb it. It's up to Trump to put pressure on Israel to stop in order to make good on his deal. It's no surprise this is instantly falling apart - Trump promised something he couldn't deliver. We can only hope that he does eventually put enough pressure on Israel to stop.
If anything, Israel is increasing its attacks on Lebanon. Ben-Gvir is making on the record comments like "For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn."
Israel absolutely seems to be taking full advantage of Trump to play utter brinkmanship.
Source: https://thecongressionalinsider.com/how-one-statement-escala...
> If anything, Israel is increasing its attacks on Lebanon.
Because the deal is good for Iran so Israel is going to ruin it on purpose. That, and killers gunna kill.
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What did Hezbollah do to break the ceasefire? I am having trouble finding anything besides news about Israel continuing to airstrike Lebanon.
In Israel or the ”lebensraum” in Southern Lebanon?
Please. This was all Israel and an obvious "fuck you" to Trump.
It was astonishing to see the praise heaped on Trump by Israeli citizens and leaders, who believed he was their savior. I wonder if it's going to change now, not because he's giving up on them (which he seems to), but because they have nobody else left to rely on. Constant incoming ass kissing is effective when it comes to him, so their best strategy might be to keep going until he changes his mind again.
Israeli trust in Trump has already plummeted[1].
[1]: https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-71-of-israelis-dont-trust...
Iran has figured out it can make the US president look like an idiot over and over at relatively low cost to themselves, since they're already so thoroughly excluded from the rest of the world.
Oh I think he manages to look like an idiot without external help...
Well you can definitely crack Donald Trump's image but when it comes to the loss, most of the loss will be borne by common people. Oil prices will once again rise markets once again fall and AI is already taking jobs. Inflation will rise along with unemployment and bad times are coming. This is happening mostly because of the foolishness of Trump.
Who do you think elected trump?
I think it is about making US pressure Israel and eventually rupturing that relationship.
Meanwhile, Israel is trying to sabotage the peace process and dont care about that relationship.
Of all the stupidity of this saga, believing Israel would simply go along with an agreement requiring them to not attack Lebanon is the stupidest.
Of course it is. It's literally the first provision in the MoU.
I think so too. Tying the conflict in Lebanon to the strait will drive a wedge between the US and Israel.
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Iran is Lucy, Trump is Charlie Brown, and the Straight of Hormuz is the football
most beautiful analogy I read today. Thank you for the laugh.
Or, US can’t figure out how to tell Israel to stop going insane
Iran or Israel?
> relatively low cost to themselves
You really believe that? Because bombing will continue until morale improves.
The real question is why does this make Grump look like an idiot any more than the numerous other idiotic things he's already done.
Unlike most times this affects people’s pocketbooks- the only real political motivation.
Approval still rides at 37%, which is pretty decent given the amount of turmoil that has been unleashed
He's not really up for re-election, so I'm not sure what approval numbers have to do with it
> He's not really up for re-election, so I'm not sure what approval numbers have to do with it
As an outsider, it seems the US midterm elections are a couple of months from now. If republicans lose, Donald Trump will most likely be impeached for all the mind numbingly high-level corruption and involvement in a pedophile ring.
Quite unlikely to get an impeachment. While there is the (long) possibility of Dems flipping the House and Senate, they will not alone have the votes to force him out without a number of Republicans to defect in the Senate. Anything is possible, but given how much insanity has already been tacitly approved, the economy would have to hit truly apocalyptic levels to expect that outcome.
Trump is already hitting disapproval levels seen during the end of W's second term. He actually is bleeding support and politically damaged due to all this.
It gets worse when you break it down into key demographics. In the same way W's presidency influenced millennials away from the GOP, Trump is doing the same for young voters today too.
Non-whites and Gen Z were plus for him in 2024. He has absolutely cratered his support in those two demos.
We will see how the midterms go :)
Can this abundant turmoil be refined into gasoline? Asking for a friend.
As of yesterday, some sources have it as low as 29% (well, of his handling of the economy): https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-approval-hits-second-term-lo...
That tracks. My rule of thumb is that political topics have a 33% group that will never budge and the remaining 4-5% accounts for the lizard man constant[1].
1. https://www.spencergreenberg.com/2024/07/the-lizardmans-cons...
Nixon was about 25% support before he resigned.
You have to multiply by the Lead-Poisoning coefficient for all events taking place in the 1970s.
Heh. Given the increased strength of party-identity, I fully agree that the floor of support will be higher than in the past.
It’s exhausting every day every week every month it’s a new low, just when you thought it couldn’t get any lower or dumber…
> why does this make Grump look like an idiot any more
Because this time his error is at a new level. Many countries had seen their strategic reserves of gasoline seriously reduced and about to disappear, and the fertilizers (that they need to feed their population in the next year) never arrived on time. His so called "little excursion" could kill much more people than any other of his former actions. For no reason or benefit.
And Israel isn't helping at all. They backstabbed Biden when he needed their help most in the elections, and are backstabbing Trump when he is desperate for the midterms. Everybody can see that Bibi plays Trump like a violin.
I don’t think it’s that. I think Trump and the US could simply use brute force to stop Iran’s attacks, control the strait, and replace the Islamic fundamentalist regime. If they wanted to.
But that’s not profitable to Trump and his family and friends and donors. By making announcements and deals and truces all the time, they can make trades anticipating each dishonest announcement. And that makes them incredibly rich and powerful.
Trump doesn’t care if anyone thinks he’s an idiot. He’s actually doing quite well if you consider the goal to be selfish corruption.
The US doesn't have nearly the firepower to do that unless they went nuclear.
It is closed! Open! Closed! Open! Closed!
We are negotiating! We dont! We do! We dont! We on the plane! We are not!
Everything is going to plan! Protect the precious bodily fluids.
Art of the Deal sigh
cut ties with israel at this point?
Aragchi was likely correct in saying the Israeli death cult is a threat to all of humanity at this point. This is untenable.
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In this case Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah, then had IDF soldiers inside Lebanon try to capture a base that Hezbollah holds. I think it’s reasonable to expect that if you sign a ceasefire and subsequently try to capture a base held by the other party of the ceasefire, they will shoot at you.
Beg Gvir said that all of Lebanon must burn. Consider who is the real aggressor here.
Speak ill of no man
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Israel is mass killing civilians in Lebanon, just as they did in Gaza, while they simultaneously enact pogroms in the West Bank.
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To be fair, none of that has been paid out yet.
Didn't some of the gulf states provide reconstruction payments already?
I thought the reconstruction $300 billion is entirely from gulf states?
TACO