The "Confident Idiot" Problem: Intelligence vs. Control (2021-2026)

(steerlabs.substack.com)

2 points | by steer_dev 10 hours ago ago

1 comments

  • steer_dev 10 hours ago ago

    The Data:

    Green Line (Capability): MMLU State-of-the-Art (48% → 94%).

    Red Line (Control): Organizations with effective mitigation for inaccuracy/hallucination (lagging at ~52%).

    Sources:

    MMLU: Official Repository (hendrycks/test) and Model Technical Reports.

    Risk: McKinsey “State of AI” Annual Reports (2023–2025).

    The Gap: Intelligence is surging. Control is lagging. We are currently in the gap (High capability, low trust).

    How are you solving the gap?

    Potential Solution: Move verification outside the model using deterministic “Reality Locks” (Regex, SQL AST, Entropy)

    Repo: https://github.com/imtt-dev/steer