Not to be insensitive to the Iranian people, but it's like France in a lot of ways, they riot/protest so much that the information content of any given riot/protest movement is minimal.
I was responding to someone giving a list of protests. My point was that a bunch of failed protests doesn't prove that Iran is particularly resistant to regime change. I was actually trying to say that this current one should be taken more seriously.
It will probably be crushed like all the other protests, unfortunately. But iran is in a worse state then it's ever been. The catalyst for this round is a currency collapse and a looming water crisis. Sadly, the Revolutionary corps seem well funded from oil money.
At the moment Iran is rebuilding it's rocket stockpile with help from china (something which Israel and the US should be much more proactive about IMO) in preparation for the next round of hostilities in which they will no doubt be humiliated again. They are probably hoping to hit more then 1 hospital and 3 residential blocks next time and retain what's left of their shattered ambitions and ego.
Still we can always hope for a regime collapse. From a foreign policy point of view they are weaker then ever. Security wise i don't know how they are doing.
> Iran is rebuilding it's rocket stockpile with help from china
Has this been confirmed?
> From a foreign policy point of view they are weaker then ever. Security wise i don't know how they are doing
Iran's borders encompass a bit of a shitshow. Its dominant ethnicity is less than three fifths the population [1]. Its next three-largest ethnicities, Azeris (14%), Kurds (9%) and Gilaki (5%) meanwhile, have bordering extant or aspiring nation-states.
(To the extent there is a hilarious if bastardly alliance in the region, it would be between Israel and Azerbaijan. Israel provides firepower. Azerbaijan gains the Azeri (and maybe Gilaki) majority north of Iran, cutting off Armenia's southern border and giving it a land border with Turkey for more pipelines.)
during war with Israel they made adjustment. Internal messaging switched to "ancient great iran" and "we are all iranians" (as in citizens of iran) or something like this.
>helping the latter seize Iran's northern and Azeri/Gilaki-majority territories
Wont't ever happen because Aliev is the OG of multipolarity/mnogovektornost and this would prevent him from scamming all of his neighbors at the same time.
> European intelligence sources say several shipments of sodium perchlorate, the main precursor in the production of the solid propellant that powers Iran’s mid-range conventional missiles, have arrived from China to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas
i hope only the best for the people of iran because they seem to be completely fantastic people and iran is an absolutely majestically beautiful place. and, selfishly, i would love to be able to visit one day. ugh, the whole situation is just so sad.
I don't know. It's possible that one of their hundreds of indiscriminately fired missiles might land there. Iirc the sole casualty of one of their major attacks was a gazan in the West Bank.
You’re right. IRAN is the security threat in the area. Not the one committing a genocide and bombing Lebanon and Qatar (a US ally nonetheless) in addition to a continued illegal expansion in the West Bank.
Is it your position that, since the Islamist government of Iran is the enemy of Israel, we can be certain it is good in both its foreign and domestic policies?
Iran inflicted hezbolla on Lebanon, Assad on syria, persecutes their own ethnic minorities and has attacked saudi arabia, qatar and Israel. If they haven't outright stolen land that's only because they are 70 times the size of Israel.
Israel and the US are planning a new war on Iran. Historically (in Iran and other places), we saw political and internal crises emerge/staged when the US is planning a regime change in that country.
Iran has protests all the time, as do lots of other countries _including the US_ and France and others and they don't herald US-led regime change. But if you have evidence for your claim that the US and Israel are planning a war in Iran, that would be major international news.
I’m sure it has nothing to do with the fact Iran is so mismanaged and suffering from severe drought they are talking about water rations or evacuations in Tehran.. or the plummeting of their currency [1] .. or the fact that the majority of the country doesn’t even support the current government [2] … no must be a conspiracy. </sarcasm>
People are disparaging of dumb conspiracism. This notion that any protest in a dictatorship is a CIA plot is bullshit. The whole “CIA color revolution” concept is bullshit meant to delegitimize and demoralize legitimate grassroots movements against shitty dictatorships. Even the Iranian leadership is publicly acknowledging their legitimacy shortfall and the economic catastrophe, and that’s saying something.
If you don’t believe in protests within dictatorships then you don’t believe in democracy. As simple as that.
"A CIA plot" goes too far, true. But to believe the CIA isn't involved at all in fomenting revolution in a country whose current government is the result of the CIA having done so in the past, and which the US considers part of the "Axis of Evil," and which is an ally to a country the US is currently waging a war of aggression and plunder against (Venezuela) seems naive.
We should be disparaging of fear mongering conspiracy theories that have no facts to back them up. Just like if you told me Democrats in the US are controlling hurricanes, or that 5G caused covid.
Just like those? Those examples are highly improbable, whereas the CIA is almost certainly active in Iran right now (that’s their job!), even if there isn’t evidence that they are behind these particular protests.
WSJ wont open for me, but was able to find it via MSN: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-protests-enter-thi...
not sure where to pull that doesn't have tracking, not seeing it on archive yet.
For those getting excited about regime change:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_protests
Not to be insensitive to the Iranian people, but it's like France in a lot of ways, they riot/protest so much that the information content of any given riot/protest movement is minimal.
Most protests don't lead to regime change.
Until they do.
I was responding to someone giving a list of protests. My point was that a bunch of failed protests doesn't prove that Iran is particularly resistant to regime change. I was actually trying to say that this current one should be taken more seriously.
_nepal has entered the chat_
It will probably be crushed like all the other protests, unfortunately. But iran is in a worse state then it's ever been. The catalyst for this round is a currency collapse and a looming water crisis. Sadly, the Revolutionary corps seem well funded from oil money.
At the moment Iran is rebuilding it's rocket stockpile with help from china (something which Israel and the US should be much more proactive about IMO) in preparation for the next round of hostilities in which they will no doubt be humiliated again. They are probably hoping to hit more then 1 hospital and 3 residential blocks next time and retain what's left of their shattered ambitions and ego.
Still we can always hope for a regime collapse. From a foreign policy point of view they are weaker then ever. Security wise i don't know how they are doing.
> Iran is rebuilding it's rocket stockpile with help from china
Has this been confirmed?
> From a foreign policy point of view they are weaker then ever. Security wise i don't know how they are doing
Iran's borders encompass a bit of a shitshow. Its dominant ethnicity is less than three fifths the population [1]. Its next three-largest ethnicities, Azeris (14%), Kurds (9%) and Gilaki (5%) meanwhile, have bordering extant or aspiring nation-states.
(To the extent there is a hilarious if bastardly alliance in the region, it would be between Israel and Azerbaijan. Israel provides firepower. Azerbaijan gains the Azeri (and maybe Gilaki) majority north of Iran, cutting off Armenia's southern border and giving it a land border with Turkey for more pipelines.)
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran
>Its dominant ethnicity is less than three fifths the population
Is that being framed as a problem? The US is the same, and I expect a few others too?
> The US is the same, and I expect a few others too?
It makes ethnic revanchism a challenge. Not an issue if you embrace being a melting plot. Existential if national identity is grounded in ethnicity.
during war with Israel they made adjustment. Internal messaging switched to "ancient great iran" and "we are all iranians" (as in citizens of iran) or something like this.
>helping the latter seize Iran's northern and Azeri/Gilaki-majority territories
Wont't ever happen because Aliev is the OG of multipolarity/mnogovektornost and this would prevent him from scamming all of his neighbors at the same time.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/29/middleeast/iran-rebuilding-ba...
> European intelligence sources say several shipments of sodium perchlorate, the main precursor in the production of the solid propellant that powers Iran’s mid-range conventional missiles, have arrived from China to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas
i hope only the best for the people of iran because they seem to be completely fantastic people and iran is an absolutely majestically beautiful place. and, selfishly, i would love to be able to visit one day. ugh, the whole situation is just so sad.
>They are probably hoping to hit more then 1 hospital and 3 residential blocks next time
Are they planning to bomb more buildings in Gaza?
I don't know. It's possible that one of their hundreds of indiscriminately fired missiles might land there. Iirc the sole casualty of one of their major attacks was a gazan in the West Bank.
How many hospitals has Israel blown up? Last I checked, it was every single one in Gaza.
none, but there may have been one or two military bases disguised as hospitals that sustained some damage
That’s a funny joke. Have fun laughing in hell, funny guy.
You’re right. IRAN is the security threat in the area. Not the one committing a genocide and bombing Lebanon and Qatar (a US ally nonetheless) in addition to a continued illegal expansion in the West Bank.
They're all the "security threat" in the area. If you can call it that. There is no security, the entire area is one giant mess of insecurity!
Is it your position that, since the Islamist government of Iran is the enemy of Israel, we can be certain it is good in both its foreign and domestic policies?
My position is that the US shouldn’t be involved in the region in any capacity.
Yes.
Iran inflicted hezbolla on Lebanon, Assad on syria, persecutes their own ethnic minorities and has attacked saudi arabia, qatar and Israel. If they haven't outright stolen land that's only because they are 70 times the size of Israel.
All that off the top of my head.
The timing of this seems rather suspect.
Please could you explain this?
Israel and the US are planning a new war on Iran. Historically (in Iran and other places), we saw political and internal crises emerge/staged when the US is planning a regime change in that country.
> Israel and the US are planning a new war on Iran
Israel and America are sabre rattling with Iran. It's been happening for about as long as Iran has been calling for death to America and Israel.
On the reason spectrum of :
- 50% inflation, tax hikes and currency devaluation [1]
- Manufactured crisis
- The presence of the 3i comet in our solar system
where would Occam's razor cut?
[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/26/irans-government-b...
> Israel and the US are planning a new war on Iran
Source?
Iran has protests all the time, as do lots of other countries _including the US_ and France and others and they don't herald US-led regime change. But if you have evidence for your claim that the US and Israel are planning a war in Iran, that would be major international news.
It is. I heard about it on the radio.
I’m sure it has nothing to do with the fact Iran is so mismanaged and suffering from severe drought they are talking about water rations or evacuations in Tehran.. or the plummeting of their currency [1] .. or the fact that the majority of the country doesn’t even support the current government [2] … no must be a conspiracy. </sarcasm>
1. https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/irans-currency-collapse...
2. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202302036145
Why not both? No need to be so disparaging.
People are disparaging of dumb conspiracism. This notion that any protest in a dictatorship is a CIA plot is bullshit. The whole “CIA color revolution” concept is bullshit meant to delegitimize and demoralize legitimate grassroots movements against shitty dictatorships. Even the Iranian leadership is publicly acknowledging their legitimacy shortfall and the economic catastrophe, and that’s saying something.
If you don’t believe in protests within dictatorships then you don’t believe in democracy. As simple as that.
"A CIA plot" goes too far, true. But to believe the CIA isn't involved at all in fomenting revolution in a country whose current government is the result of the CIA having done so in the past, and which the US considers part of the "Axis of Evil," and which is an ally to a country the US is currently waging a war of aggression and plunder against (Venezuela) seems naive.
We should be disparaging of fear mongering conspiracy theories that have no facts to back them up. Just like if you told me Democrats in the US are controlling hurricanes, or that 5G caused covid.
Just like those? Those examples are highly improbable, whereas the CIA is almost certainly active in Iran right now (that’s their job!), even if there isn’t evidence that they are behind these particular protests.