You know, for many decades — centuries, even — people have had ideas like you had here, mandarwagh. You extrapolate ideas into the future, think really hard about it, and try to lay out a compelling vision.
Typically people also wrap character and whatnot around this skeleton and call it a “science fiction short story.” That also requires that you justify parts of the narrative, though, otherwise people might claim that what you’re writing is unrealistic.
This presumes quite a bit. As it stands, AGI has not been achieved, and this article is claiming that, by 2028, 90% of all knowledge-worker jobs will be done by an AI system.
Even were that to happen, it is unlikely that a UBI would be put in place, or if it were, that it would be successful. An Ouroboros of taxing owners to pay the public who buy from the owners wouldn't be successful. The reality is that were all workers to be replaced by AI, the economy would collapse. Then, the owners of the systems would be forced to liquidate their assets, the prices on GPUs would crater, and the AI means of production would be redistributed among the hands of the public. Then, small models would be driving productivity in the new wave of startups following the crash. This pattern could repeat many times.
90% of jobs replaced by AI in 3 years? UBI in 5 years?
Why do all of these articles have completely unrealistic timeframes? This feels like someone trying their hand at the https://ai-2027.com/ project, which was based on some mathematically flimsy models that models that have been widely debunked.
It sounds optimistic, but exponential adoption curves show otherwise. In just 18 months since ChatGPT, AI has already displaced coding, design, research, and support roles. Once businesses see it can fully replace repetitive work at near-zero cost, adoption compresses fast. The real barrier is not tech but social and regulatory adaptation.
and even i get this wrong its just an thought experiment and has a 50% chance
> In just 18 months since ChatGPT, AI has already displaced coding, design, research, and support roles.
Can you provide an actually credible source that shows this? And what do you mean by "displaced"? Sure, AI is aiding, but it is nowhere close to replacing.
So far, the people I've seen mentioning that AI is taking jobs haven't actually provided evidence of this being the case.
Imagine hardware industries :) Agriculture, forestry, carpenters… AI is toothless and maybe it is or will be used as aid.
Everybody wants AI, it is similar to ebook readers will displace books, websites will displace other marketing channels, PDAs will displace desktop computers, and tablets will displace PDAs etc…
AI fever it is and we should take some drugs to cool down :)
A fun read, but wildly implausible. Perhaps there are other frontier technologies out there that get us even a fraction of this. But if we're talking this time horizon, I assume we mean LLMs or some other related thing? Are you joking?
You know, for many decades — centuries, even — people have had ideas like you had here, mandarwagh. You extrapolate ideas into the future, think really hard about it, and try to lay out a compelling vision.
Typically people also wrap character and whatnot around this skeleton and call it a “science fiction short story.” That also requires that you justify parts of the narrative, though, otherwise people might claim that what you’re writing is unrealistic.
This presumes quite a bit. As it stands, AGI has not been achieved, and this article is claiming that, by 2028, 90% of all knowledge-worker jobs will be done by an AI system.
Even were that to happen, it is unlikely that a UBI would be put in place, or if it were, that it would be successful. An Ouroboros of taxing owners to pay the public who buy from the owners wouldn't be successful. The reality is that were all workers to be replaced by AI, the economy would collapse. Then, the owners of the systems would be forced to liquidate their assets, the prices on GPUs would crater, and the AI means of production would be redistributed among the hands of the public. Then, small models would be driving productivity in the new wave of startups following the crash. This pattern could repeat many times.
90% of jobs replaced by AI in 3 years? UBI in 5 years?
Why do all of these articles have completely unrealistic timeframes? This feels like someone trying their hand at the https://ai-2027.com/ project, which was based on some mathematically flimsy models that models that have been widely debunked.
> By 2028, AI already performs 90% of the jobs that once required intelligent and knowledgeable humans.
Two and a half years from now? Sound VERY optimistic.
It sounds optimistic, but exponential adoption curves show otherwise. In just 18 months since ChatGPT, AI has already displaced coding, design, research, and support roles. Once businesses see it can fully replace repetitive work at near-zero cost, adoption compresses fast. The real barrier is not tech but social and regulatory adaptation.
and even i get this wrong its just an thought experiment and has a 50% chance
> In just 18 months since ChatGPT, AI has already displaced coding, design, research, and support roles.
Can you provide an actually credible source that shows this? And what do you mean by "displaced"? Sure, AI is aiding, but it is nowhere close to replacing.
So far, the people I've seen mentioning that AI is taking jobs haven't actually provided evidence of this being the case.
Imagine hardware industries :) Agriculture, forestry, carpenters… AI is toothless and maybe it is or will be used as aid.
Everybody wants AI, it is similar to ebook readers will displace books, websites will displace other marketing channels, PDAs will displace desktop computers, and tablets will displace PDAs etc…
AI fever it is and we should take some drugs to cool down :)
> In just 18 months since ChatGPT
ChatGPT came out almost 3 years ago.
> AI has already displaced coding, design, research, and support roles
No it hasn't.
> Once businesses see it can fully replace repetitive work at near-zero cost
It can't.
Not surprising takes from someone with 0 professional experience and in their second year of college though.
A fun read, but wildly implausible. Perhaps there are other frontier technologies out there that get us even a fraction of this. But if we're talking this time horizon, I assume we mean LLMs or some other related thing? Are you joking?
Is the "No blog post specified." a satirical commentary on the situation?