Agreed. It may as well be a million billion percent, there’s barely anything at all that will get exported at this level - diminishing returns from 125% to 145%.
GPUs reportedly will be immune to tariffs if assembly moves to Canada or Mexico, even if they incorporate Chinese components that would qualify for tariffs if directly imported into the U.S. for use in graphics card assembly:
If assembly moves to Canada or Mexico, their much lower tariffs on foreign components should apply, so their governments would have a share of GPU revenue from sales of GPUs in the US.
Finally, because the components will be tariffed if imported into the U.S. for assembly, the effect of U.S. tariffs makes it cheaper to build things in Mexico and Canada, which seems contrary to their purpose.
How do tariffs affect finished graphics cards assembled in China? Is the tariff set based on the expected retail price, the BOM + assembly costs, or something else? If it is set based partly on BOM, would components with different countries of origin be tariffed at lower rates?
> How do tariffs affect finished graphics cards assembled in China?
It's largely complicated.
What is assembled in China? A graphics card (or anything) is made up of many smaller parts. Some of it might have US-based parts, made up of non-US based parts. Tariffs happen on import (when someone buys something). So for each part this would need to be paid too.
That aside, if you ask me, the cheapest way is to get rid of US jobs. Remove the US parts so you have a 100% non-US product. 0% tariff so far. For US-only sales have it assembled shipped to a country like Singapore or Australia with 10% tariffs to package and re-label. When you ship from say Singapore to US, the buyer fills in the tariff code with country of origin Singapore. Case closed. 10% tariffs.
i.e. are you sure US wins?
What's next? Inspect every import to verify its country of origin? It'd clog up the ports.
Since Trump's 1st tariff on China, 100s of billions have been imported without tariffs. It's happening and continues to happen.
That aside, if you ask me, the cheapest way is to get rid of US jobs. Remove the US parts so you have a 100% non-US product. 0% tariff so far. For US-only sales have it assembled shipped to a country like Singapore or Australia with 10% tariffs to package and re-label. When you ship from say Singapore to US, the buyer fills in the tariff code with country of origin Singapore. Case closed. 10% tariffs.
I did not ask, but this does not make any sense to me. As per the following article, this trick where the country of origin changes based on assembly only applies to Canada and Mexico, not Singapore or Australia:
It is unclear how removing U.S. components from products would reduce U.S. tariffs.
Excluding your “remove US components idea”, it is clear to me that China is losing in such a scenario, since they cannot tariff the non-Chinese components anymore and the Chinese components would be subject to tariffs in the country of assembly. To be clear, I do not know to what extent they enforce tariffs on non-Chinese components, but I have read of them placing tariffs imports from other countries, which could affect the components made in those countries.
These only have 10% reciprocal tariffs applied so I used it as the example. Paying 10% is a lot easier than dealing with the Canada and Mexico deal, which is more likely to change.
> It is unclear how removing U.S. components from products would reduce U.S. tariffs.
US components need to pay tariffs since the US cannot produce that component whole in the US completely. Removing them makes it cheaper.
> it is clear to me that China is losing in such a scenario, since they cannot tariff the non-Chinese components anymore
Why do they want that? Who wants tariffs? Every economist says that random use of tariffs has an adverse impact.
China hasn't been paying tariffs to the US either. Most proper engagements have been re-routing. Only US small businesses suffer (since re-routing is harder for small businesses).
Yep. US investment and manufacturing will cease entirely with instability.
Being bad for business, it's more likely now that the economic royalists will find a way to remove POTUS by impeachment and conviction for one of his many alleged crimes by turning COTUS against Dear Leader through economic and political pressure. The billionaire class has a much deeper bench and bigger war chest than the Musk-Trump duumvirate.
PCBs would need about 400-1000% tariffs to allow us domestic manufacturers to be competitive with their current pricing vs say jlcpcb. It’s that big of a difference.
> we are clearly beyond the point where any goods are going to flow between the US and China
No, we're at a point where goods won't flow from US to China, not the other way around.
China has found workarounds for getting into the US for a long time e.g. via Canada and Mexico (why they got tariffs from day 1). They will continue to do so.
Considering that the US is also adding tariffs to every other country, which side would they be on?
You're out of your mind if you think people will pay more in the long-term when there are or will be cheaper alternatives. Many countries in Africa are the next logical neocolonial maquiladora targets for cheap goods to feed the Global North.
"Many countries in Africa" don't have the infrastructure, manpower, expertise, supply chain, and other factors - and they wont have for the foreseeable future.
If you're talking about sweatshops making clothes and stuff, sure. If you're talking about anything more advanced, that requires factories, technology, complex production lines, etc, nope.
For the foreseeable future, things will just get expensive and/or be consumed less.
You'd be lucky if you get "only modestly quite more expensive" alternatives.
Are there any alternatives to JLCPCB that are cheaper post tariffs for small order quantities of 5 to 25? I ask because I am not aware of any options that come close. If there are, I know people who would like to know.
By the way, I believe the de minimis exemption is still in effect until May 2, so until we get close enough to the deadline for shipments to arrive on May 2 or later, the tariff rate does not apply to small shipments.
US treasuries rates are going up while the dollar index is going down. Unprecedented. I think if Trump/US doesn't massively retract from this position, we are going to see a change of the current economical and monetary order.
I assume China's export markets vary widely in terms of product lines and target market segments, and that US-bound items would be most suitable for the EU, more so than (for example) for BRIC countries.
Point taken. But isn't most of the stuff that fills (say) a Dollar General from China ? Isn't most of the stuff that fills people's garages and attics from China ? I suspect so but have no data.
It's meaningless now, we are clearly beyond the point where any goods are going to flow between the US and China.
Agreed. It may as well be a million billion percent, there’s barely anything at all that will get exported at this level - diminishing returns from 125% to 145%.
GPUs reportedly will be immune to tariffs if assembly moves to Canada or Mexico, even if they incorporate Chinese components that would qualify for tariffs if directly imported into the U.S. for use in graphics card assembly:
https://semianalysis.com/2025/04/10/tariff-armageddon-gpu-lo...
If assembly moves to Canada or Mexico, their much lower tariffs on foreign components should apply, so their governments would have a share of GPU revenue from sales of GPUs in the US.
Finally, because the components will be tariffed if imported into the U.S. for assembly, the effect of U.S. tariffs makes it cheaper to build things in Mexico and Canada, which seems contrary to their purpose.
> GPUs reportedly will be immune to tariffs if assembly moves to Canada or Mexico
Quoting the linked article:
> as long as his March 7 executive orders remain in effect
Good luck. Everything is changing every day with this US government.
You will just have to keep going to those 1mil/pop dinners at maralago https://www.npr.org/2025/04/09/nx-s1-5356480/nvidia-china-ai...
How do tariffs affect finished graphics cards assembled in China? Is the tariff set based on the expected retail price, the BOM + assembly costs, or something else? If it is set based partly on BOM, would components with different countries of origin be tariffed at lower rates?
> How do tariffs affect finished graphics cards assembled in China?
It's largely complicated.
What is assembled in China? A graphics card (or anything) is made up of many smaller parts. Some of it might have US-based parts, made up of non-US based parts. Tariffs happen on import (when someone buys something). So for each part this would need to be paid too.
That aside, if you ask me, the cheapest way is to get rid of US jobs. Remove the US parts so you have a 100% non-US product. 0% tariff so far. For US-only sales have it assembled shipped to a country like Singapore or Australia with 10% tariffs to package and re-label. When you ship from say Singapore to US, the buyer fills in the tariff code with country of origin Singapore. Case closed. 10% tariffs.
i.e. are you sure US wins?
What's next? Inspect every import to verify its country of origin? It'd clog up the ports.
Since Trump's 1st tariff on China, 100s of billions have been imported without tariffs. It's happening and continues to happen.
https://semianalysis.com/2025/04/10/tariff-armageddon-gpu-lo...
It is unclear how removing U.S. components from products would reduce U.S. tariffs.
Excluding your “remove US components idea”, it is clear to me that China is losing in such a scenario, since they cannot tariff the non-Chinese components anymore and the Chinese components would be subject to tariffs in the country of assembly. To be clear, I do not know to what extent they enforce tariffs on non-Chinese components, but I have read of them placing tariffs imports from other countries, which could affect the components made in those countries.
> not Singapore or Australia
These only have 10% reciprocal tariffs applied so I used it as the example. Paying 10% is a lot easier than dealing with the Canada and Mexico deal, which is more likely to change.
> It is unclear how removing U.S. components from products would reduce U.S. tariffs.
US components need to pay tariffs since the US cannot produce that component whole in the US completely. Removing them makes it cheaper.
> it is clear to me that China is losing in such a scenario, since they cannot tariff the non-Chinese components anymore
Why do they want that? Who wants tariffs? Every economist says that random use of tariffs has an adverse impact.
China hasn't been paying tariffs to the US either. Most proper engagements have been re-routing. Only US small businesses suffer (since re-routing is harder for small businesses).
Yep. US investment and manufacturing will cease entirely with instability.
Being bad for business, it's more likely now that the economic royalists will find a way to remove POTUS by impeachment and conviction for one of his many alleged crimes by turning COTUS against Dear Leader through economic and political pressure. The billionaire class has a much deeper bench and bigger war chest than the Musk-Trump duumvirate.
> The billionaire class has a much deeper bench and bigger war chest than the Musk-Trump duumvirate
Musk has already left the scene...
PCBs would need about 400-1000% tariffs to allow us domestic manufacturers to be competitive with their current pricing vs say jlcpcb. It’s that big of a difference.
> we are clearly beyond the point where any goods are going to flow between the US and China
No, we're at a point where goods won't flow from US to China, not the other way around.
China has found workarounds for getting into the US for a long time e.g. via Canada and Mexico (why they got tariffs from day 1). They will continue to do so.
Considering that the US is also adding tariffs to every other country, which side would they be on?
>we are clearly beyond the point where any goods are going to flow between the US and China
Not even close to being near that point, much less "beyond".
It simply can't happen (the flow to stop in any significant way) for the foreseeable future of 5-10 years. Trade will continue.
If all such trade was to stop not even now, but even a year from now, It would be Mad Max.
You're out of your mind if you think people will pay more in the long-term when there are or will be cheaper alternatives. Many countries in Africa are the next logical neocolonial maquiladora targets for cheap goods to feed the Global North.
Key words: "when there are or will be".
"Many countries in Africa" don't have the infrastructure, manpower, expertise, supply chain, and other factors - and they wont have for the foreseeable future.
If you're talking about sweatshops making clothes and stuff, sure. If you're talking about anything more advanced, that requires factories, technology, complex production lines, etc, nope.
For the foreseeable future, things will just get expensive and/or be consumed less.
You'd be lucky if you get "only modestly quite more expensive" alternatives.
Are there any alternatives to JLCPCB that are cheaper post tariffs for small order quantities of 5 to 25? I ask because I am not aware of any options that come close. If there are, I know people who would like to know.
By the way, I believe the de minimis exemption is still in effect until May 2, so until we get close enough to the deadline for shipments to arrive on May 2 or later, the tariff rate does not apply to small shipments.
Try making PCBs or small custom milled parts. You would need at least 500% tariffs to match Chinese prices.
Both Gold and Silver are rallying: https://goldprice.org
US treasuries rates are going up while the dollar index is going down. Unprecedented. I think if Trump/US doesn't massively retract from this position, we are going to see a change of the current economical and monetary order.
Agreed, and when it bursts it will move incredible fast
"How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."
― Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
That's a good book.
Does this mean that the EU is gonna get flooded with all the crap^H^H^H^H stuff that was intended for the US ?
I imagine China will export more to the rest of the world. The US was only 15% of Chinese exports.
I assume China's export markets vary widely in terms of product lines and target market segments, and that US-bound items would be most suitable for the EU, more so than (for example) for BRIC countries.
The idea that China only produces crap is so tiresome.
Without Chinese imports most luxury goods will disappear will be replaced by more expensive and lower quality alternatives.
Point taken. But isn't most of the stuff that fills (say) a Dollar General from China ? Isn't most of the stuff that fills people's garages and attics from China ? I suspect so but have no data.
Most of all stuff is from China, both low and high quality.
[flagged]