Don't rely on gut feeling or anecdotal evidence, there's good data you can look at.
Over a few years, I came to rely on proxy indicators that I found to be reliably in sync with the strength / weakness of the job market for software engineers.
One of these indicators is the business spending index (it has an official name, something about purchasing managers' sentiment index or similar). CNBC tends to show it a lot these days, you can't miss it.
Another one is "US Auto Loans Delinquent by 90 or More Days (I:USALD90)" which is a very good "finger to the wind" for how the overall economy is doing, since everyone needs a car.
Neither of these indicators are looking good these days.
So far sadly it seems to be in deep shit. Worst i can remember and keeps getting worse. The top point in my perception was reached in late 2022 and it keeps getting worse and worse ever since.
2002 was already past the dot com bomb, but as for 2008 recession, SURELY getting a custom dev job in 2008 was easier than now, and in 2009... well maybe about as hard as now.
Tech giants like Meta and Amazon restarted large-scale hiring in Q4 2023-Q1 2024, with software engineer roles increasing by ~18% YoY (LinkedIn data). However:
Entry-level positions face fierce competition (average response rate <20%).
Senior roles (5+ years) command salaries exceeding $150K, especially for AI/machine learning and full-stack experts.
Is full-stack development now considered an advancement? I always thought that it is considered less valuable compared to more specialized roles these days. (I'm a full-stack developer.)
Not really. Not seeing any external improvement in my area. Internally, I'm seeing some improvement, but only for very specific and higher level roles. Still way more applicants than roles. Still lots of people leaving the company with only some of the roles being backfilled.
Don't rely on gut feeling or anecdotal evidence, there's good data you can look at.
Over a few years, I came to rely on proxy indicators that I found to be reliably in sync with the strength / weakness of the job market for software engineers.
One of these indicators is the business spending index (it has an official name, something about purchasing managers' sentiment index or similar). CNBC tends to show it a lot these days, you can't miss it.
Another one is "US Auto Loans Delinquent by 90 or More Days (I:USALD90)" which is a very good "finger to the wind" for how the overall economy is doing, since everyone needs a car.
Neither of these indicators are looking good these days.
So far sadly it seems to be in deep shit. Worst i can remember and keeps getting worse. The top point in my perception was reached in late 2022 and it keeps getting worse and worse ever since.
How far back can you remember? So I can put it in context.
2002
Hmm - I'm not sure I'd put the current situation up there with the dot com bomb or the 2008 recession...but its definitely not good
2002 was already past the dot com bomb, but as for 2008 recession, SURELY getting a custom dev job in 2008 was easier than now, and in 2009... well maybe about as hard as now.
Tech giants like Meta and Amazon restarted large-scale hiring in Q4 2023-Q1 2024, with software engineer roles increasing by ~18% YoY (LinkedIn data). However:
Entry-level positions face fierce competition (average response rate <20%). Senior roles (5+ years) command salaries exceeding $150K, especially for AI/machine learning and full-stack experts.
Is full-stack development now considered an advancement? I always thought that it is considered less valuable compared to more specialized roles these days. (I'm a full-stack developer.)
Not really. Not seeing any external improvement in my area. Internally, I'm seeing some improvement, but only for very specific and higher level roles. Still way more applicants than roles. Still lots of people leaving the company with only some of the roles being backfilled.
2022. End. I don't receive any messages!
I think it's back to 2019 pre-covid
especially for AI/machine learning and full-stack experts.
Anecdotally, yes. I've gotten about 7+ in the last couple weeks.
This is the most frequent I've seen since early 2022. These are for fairly senior roles.