Y…yes? When a number is lower than it was before it fell? If I’m supposed to be flying at 10,000 feet and I go from 140 to 120, I fell even as I remain 2,000 feet above my target.
Reminder: unless you acheive negative inflation, prices only increase over time because the inflation metric is a positive number. Thsi goes for the price gouging as well, it generally follows the same rules despite the artificiality.
Real utility bills of real citizens have doubled. All the associated taxes, delivery fees, etc. are clearly not included, or they’ve used substitution to alter the baseline basket they’re using to compute the metric (a common tactic).
Ask 10 citizens who own/rent the same property what their utility bill was a decade ago.
> the associated taxes, delivery fees, etc. are clearly not included, or they’ve used substitution to alter the baseline basket they’re using to compute the metric
I’m not familiar with Canadian methods. But in America, both CPI and PCE look at the bottom line, i.e. tax inclusive to taxes, delivery fees, et cetera.
> Ask 10 citizens who own/rent the same property what their utility bill was a decade ago
I can look at my own bills and say from five years ago the rates and bottom lines are identical. But I’m in Wyoming, where energy is cheap. (There is a new surcharge this year, but that’s less than 5% for me. Which for 5 years is fine.) Gas prices, too, are about flat across America from ten years ago, give or take—petrol is cheaper in real terms than it was ten years ago.
> If price per kwh doubles, but energy budgets are stuck, how does this appear in the CPI
It doubles. “BLS calculates and publishes average price series for price per kWh of electricity, per therm of utility (piped) gas service, and per gallon of fuel oil” [1]. (Not sure about PCE.)
Imagine not being capable of independently verifying this easily observable fact. Look at every consumer expense category since Q3 2021 and use the “Rule of 72” to check:
72/25 implies prices doubling in about 3 years. Have consumer prices broadly doubled since Q3 2021? Gas, food, rent, clothes? Pretty close!
Therefore, you’ve just independently verified that their claim is much closer to the ground truth than the official laughable claims of 2-3% CPI!
Your government and their mouthpieces are gaslighting you.
Don’t be fooled. You’re being lied to.
PS: I don’t know/care about truflation.com’s methodology or politics. Neither should you. Just believe your eyes and ears - and the evidence in front of you supports claims of double-digit inflation, while directly and strongly negating claims of low single-digit inflation.
What if inflation was really way above 10 %? Car insurance went up 20 %, homeowners insurance 10 %, canned tomato nearly doubled in price, and don't ask about cat food. The government figure of 2.4 % is just not credible.
> What if inflation was really way above 10 %? Car insurance went up 20 %, homeowners insurance 10 %
You’re may be in one of the regions seeing higher inflation [1]. (Florida, Maine, New York, Arizona, Texas and South Carolina being the worst hit in 2023.)
In Wyoming, my homeowner’s is up 10%. But car is flat/down, gas is down, and fresh veggies down—altogether I’m spending less than a few months ago on basics.
Went up over what period? Inflation was quite high from mid-2021 to mid-2023, peaking around 9% (annualized) in June 2022. But since mid-2023, the inflation rate has been steady and not very high. Prices haven't gone back to what they were before, which you really don't want because deflation is worse than inflation. But prices aren't going up the way they were 2 and 3 years ago, but that doesn't mean we don't still feel it.
Exactly. Official cumulative inflation numbers since COVID are almost 25%, which feels about right and is very roughly in line with what the OP is claiming.
Homeowner's and car insurance came up for renewal this July with said increases. No, we did not have any claims or adverse factors that might have caused the increase. We live in a low-crime city, and are not at risk for wildfire, flood or wind.
The PPI for tomato sauce, which had been very much constant between 1980 and 2020 (annual increase ~ 1 %) went up by 50 % between mid-2021 and January this year. There is no reason for it to go up, except the grocery monopoly and sticky prices. Of course I want it to come down, the increase isn't due to factors at the producer side.
Capital equipment is also a durable asset, but it is productive. Sick of stumbling over hundred homeless whenever I go shopping, and then there's the knock-on effects of people not being able to take jobs because of the excessive costs of housing.
Is "falls to" the correct interpretation here?
It's higher-than-expected.
> Is "falls to" the correct interpretation here?
Y…yes? When a number is lower than it was before it fell? If I’m supposed to be flying at 10,000 feet and I go from 140 to 120, I fell even as I remain 2,000 feet above my target.
What was the expected value?
> What was the expected value?
2.3% was forecast and 2% is the target.
Thanks :-)
Reminder: unless you acheive negative inflation, prices only increase over time because the inflation metric is a positive number. Thsi goes for the price gouging as well, it generally follows the same rules despite the artificiality.
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In Canada, consumer prices across every expense category have roughly doubled over the last 9 years, implying an annual inflation rate of 8%.
Anyone with a calculator and the “Rule of 72” can independently verify this as fact.
That every government mouthpiece intones the party dogma doesn’t change this fact.
Your government is lying to you.
> consumer prices across every expense category have roughly doubled over the last 9 years, implying an annual inflation rate of 8%
Your energy prices are double what they were a decade ago?
Btw, official stats show prices up 30% in Canada over the past 10 years [1].
[1] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=181000...
Real utility bills of real citizens have doubled. All the associated taxes, delivery fees, etc. are clearly not included, or they’ve used substitution to alter the baseline basket they’re using to compute the metric (a common tactic).
Ask 10 citizens who own/rent the same property what their utility bill was a decade ago.
You’re being gaslighted.
> the associated taxes, delivery fees, etc. are clearly not included, or they’ve used substitution to alter the baseline basket they’re using to compute the metric
I’m not familiar with Canadian methods. But in America, both CPI and PCE look at the bottom line, i.e. tax inclusive to taxes, delivery fees, et cetera.
> Ask 10 citizens who own/rent the same property what their utility bill was a decade ago
I can look at my own bills and say from five years ago the rates and bottom lines are identical. But I’m in Wyoming, where energy is cheap. (There is a new surcharge this year, but that’s less than 5% for me. Which for 5 years is fine.) Gas prices, too, are about flat across America from ten years ago, give or take—petrol is cheaper in real terms than it was ten years ago.
In the US, does it take into account elasticity of demand?
If price per kwh doubles, but energy budgets are stuck, how does this appear in the CPI.
> If price per kwh doubles, but energy budgets are stuck, how does this appear in the CPI
It doubles. “BLS calculates and publishes average price series for price per kWh of electricity, per therm of utility (piped) gas service, and per gallon of fuel oil” [1]. (Not sure about PCE.)
[1] https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/household-energy.htm
Thanks! I wonder if or how they handle things like grid connection fees or California income based pricing.
Imagine believing inflation is 25%.
Cumulative inflation, using official CPI figures, is 22% since 2020. Check it yourself on the BLS.gov website here: https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=1&year1=202001...
A figure of 25% using an alternate methodology is not at all unreasonable.
That appears to be cumulative since 2020, which is perfectly plausible.
It is different per goods and categories, so individual milage may vary.
I have receipts and photos from 2019, and most grocery items I buy have seen price doubling.
I typically bought tri-tip when it went down to $2.99/lb as late as 2022. I haven't seen less than $4.99 this year.
Imagine not being capable of independently verifying this easily observable fact. Look at every consumer expense category since Q3 2021 and use the “Rule of 72” to check:
72/25 implies prices doubling in about 3 years. Have consumer prices broadly doubled since Q3 2021? Gas, food, rent, clothes? Pretty close!
Therefore, you’ve just independently verified that their claim is much closer to the ground truth than the official laughable claims of 2-3% CPI!
Your government and their mouthpieces are gaslighting you.
Don’t be fooled. You’re being lied to.
PS: I don’t know/care about truflation.com’s methodology or politics. Neither should you. Just believe your eyes and ears - and the evidence in front of you supports claims of double-digit inflation, while directly and strongly negating claims of low single-digit inflation.
What if inflation was really way above 10 %? Car insurance went up 20 %, homeowners insurance 10 %, canned tomato nearly doubled in price, and don't ask about cat food. The government figure of 2.4 % is just not credible.
> What if inflation was really way above 10 %? Car insurance went up 20 %, homeowners insurance 10 %
You’re may be in one of the regions seeing higher inflation [1]. (Florida, Maine, New York, Arizona, Texas and South Carolina being the worst hit in 2023.)
In Wyoming, my homeowner’s is up 10%. But car is flat/down, gas is down, and fresh veggies down—altogether I’m spending less than a few months ago on basics.
[1] https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-consumption-expenditu...
>went up
Went up over what period? Inflation was quite high from mid-2021 to mid-2023, peaking around 9% (annualized) in June 2022. But since mid-2023, the inflation rate has been steady and not very high. Prices haven't gone back to what they were before, which you really don't want because deflation is worse than inflation. But prices aren't going up the way they were 2 and 3 years ago, but that doesn't mean we don't still feel it.
Exactly. Official cumulative inflation numbers since COVID are almost 25%, which feels about right and is very roughly in line with what the OP is claiming.
Homeowner's and car insurance came up for renewal this July with said increases. No, we did not have any claims or adverse factors that might have caused the increase. We live in a low-crime city, and are not at risk for wildfire, flood or wind.
The St Louis Fed has the goods on tomatoes, you would expect that: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU02440127
The PPI for tomato sauce, which had been very much constant between 1980 and 2020 (annual increase ~ 1 %) went up by 50 % between mid-2021 and January this year. There is no reason for it to go up, except the grocery monopoly and sticky prices. Of course I want it to come down, the increase isn't due to factors at the producer side.
Here's the price for eggs: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111
At least there the recent increase is explainable by bird flu, but no one expects prices to come down once the epizootic is over.
And there are areas where you want deflation, just to discourage investment. Housing is not supposed to be an investment vehicle.
>Housing is not supposed to be an investment vehicle.
I always take issue with this when I see it. Who is making the supposition, and what reality do they live in.
It is a durable capital asset which provides either revenue or cost savings. In what economic world is that not an investment of some sort.
Should housing be a bad investment?
Capital equipment is also a durable asset, but it is productive. Sick of stumbling over hundred homeless whenever I go shopping, and then there's the knock-on effects of people not being able to take jobs because of the excessive costs of housing.
Housing is very productive. It produces shelter.
I dont like homeless people either. We need to build more housing.
Shouting at the clouds about price does not solve that.
Groceries prices are higher again :/