This is Katrina-like. It won't hit Florida as a Category 5 (should weaken before then, like Katrina), but the wind-driven storm surge it builds up passing over the Gulf will be that of a Category 5.
Tampa Bay is geographically quite vulnerable to storm surge. They have been fortunate to not have been hit directly by a hurricane in a long time. This looks like the nightmare scenario.
Most of Tampa Bay is less than 50 feet above sea level. It's not quite as bad as New Orleans, but it's not good. A comparable storm would be the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane that made landfall in a very similar way when Tampa was not nearly as populated.
I'm looking at a scenario for the counties: Citrus Hardee Hernando Hillsborough Manatee Pasco Pinellas Polk Sumter (Project Phoenix Scenario)
Barrier islands are quickly overtopped, provide ~no protection.
Water up to 26 feet above tide level in downtown Tampa. Bridges have their approaches washed away or are otherwise made unusable.
Most windows blown out in high rise buildings. Along with roof damage/destruction, leads to predictable results for the structures involved.
Inland is not protected from flooding, rivers Hillsborough, Alafia, Lower Manatee, Braden, and Manatee and the Tampa Bypass Canal fill with storm surge water and flood their banks.
During the peak of the flooding, parts of central St. Petersburg and mid‐Pinellas County that are not fully flooded become effective islands. Escape is probably not possible.
General inability to operate Search and Rescue, even days afterwards. Major loss of life.
Personally I would start pulling everything out of Florida I can right now (investments, physical assets, etc.) and write everything off that remains, pending revision.
> Personally I would start pulling everything out of Florida I can right now (investments, physical assets, etc.) and write everything off that remains, pending revision.
Isn’t that a bit hyperbolic?
I don't know where[a] they found that exact number, but it seems reasonable for parts of the bay interior, because of funneling effects. Same reason the Bay of Fundy has a 16-meter daily tide when the open ocean doesn't do that.
([a] 26 feet is the exact elevation of Tampa International Airport, so perhaps it's that. If you look at the surge maps, they do show a nonzero chance of surge over those runways).
Yes? When I wrote the original comment the actual data looked pretty close, and I still think it's a pretty good match. It would be difficult to re-calculate bridge damage estimates in real time.
I'd be really worried as they haven't finished cleaning up from the previous hurricane. The giant piles of debris are going to be providing a lot of flying projectiles.
I'm tempted to make office space jokes, but this has the potential to be far too destructive. Besides the possible direct devastation, the whole state could be affected by further disruption to the state insurance market.
On the financial level, the state might be too much risk. Personally I would consider if I really needed to have anything to do with Florida at all. If you think that makes sense, consider getting everything out before it gets priced in (because I'm pretty sure it's distorted right now).
the worse case scenario is if the eye makes landfall north of Tampa, as the counter clockwise rotation pushes more water in front of the front right quadrant.
Tampa could be spared if it turns more south, but there are other communities that will more be impacted instead. There is no good outcome here…
I'm not sure what you're trying to say about "luck" here, it seems you're angrily attacking parent-poster for hoping the natural-disaster will miss a major city because of... Foolish optimism? Selfish desire?
This is Katrina-like. It won't hit Florida as a Category 5 (should weaken before then, like Katrina), but the wind-driven storm surge it builds up passing over the Gulf will be that of a Category 5.
Current forecast is 10-15 feet in Tampa bay,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/213144.s...
Tampa Bay is geographically quite vulnerable to storm surge. They have been fortunate to not have been hit directly by a hurricane in a long time. This looks like the nightmare scenario.
What does that mean for potential damage? Is there some kind of measure of how far inland water can travel?
Most of Tampa Bay is less than 50 feet above sea level. It's not quite as bad as New Orleans, but it's not good. A comparable storm would be the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane that made landfall in a very similar way when Tampa was not nearly as populated.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Tampa_Bay_hurricane
Zoom in on Tampa on this Category 4 flood map and see the utter devastation that this amount of flooding will cause:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b...
There's a specific storm surge forecast map for this storm,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092140.s...
https://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/psurge2.0/
"Almost unthinkable" according to the Project Phoenix report.
I'm looking at a scenario for the counties: Citrus Hardee Hernando Hillsborough Manatee Pasco Pinellas Polk Sumter (Project Phoenix Scenario)
Barrier islands are quickly overtopped, provide ~no protection.
Water up to 26 feet above tide level in downtown Tampa. Bridges have their approaches washed away or are otherwise made unusable.
Most windows blown out in high rise buildings. Along with roof damage/destruction, leads to predictable results for the structures involved.
Inland is not protected from flooding, rivers Hillsborough, Alafia, Lower Manatee, Braden, and Manatee and the Tampa Bypass Canal fill with storm surge water and flood their banks.
During the peak of the flooding, parts of central St. Petersburg and mid‐Pinellas County that are not fully flooded become effective islands. Escape is probably not possible.
General inability to operate Search and Rescue, even days afterwards. Major loss of life.
Personally I would start pulling everything out of Florida I can right now (investments, physical assets, etc.) and write everything off that remains, pending revision.
> Personally I would start pulling everything out of Florida I can right now (investments, physical assets, etc.) and write everything off that remains, pending revision. Isn’t that a bit hyperbolic?
Where are you seeing 26ft?
NOAA is projecting 10-15 ft
I don't know where[a] they found that exact number, but it seems reasonable for parts of the bay interior, because of funneling effects. Same reason the Bay of Fundy has a 16-meter daily tide when the open ocean doesn't do that.
([a] 26 feet is the exact elevation of Tampa International Airport, so perhaps it's that. If you look at the surge maps, they do show a nonzero chance of surge over those runways).
I got it from the Project Phoenix Scenario.
Project phoenix is a made up simulation
Yes? When I wrote the original comment the actual data looked pretty close, and I still think it's a pretty good match. It would be difficult to re-calculate bridge damage estimates in real time.
10-15 is probably storm surge and 26 is with waves on top
I'd be really worried as they haven't finished cleaning up from the previous hurricane. The giant piles of debris are going to be providing a lot of flying projectiles.
I'm tempted to make office space jokes, but this has the potential to be far too destructive. Besides the possible direct devastation, the whole state could be affected by further disruption to the state insurance market.
On the financial level, the state might be too much risk. Personally I would consider if I really needed to have anything to do with Florida at all. If you think that makes sense, consider getting everything out before it gets priced in (because I'm pretty sure it's distorted right now).
> the whole state could be affected by further disruption to the state insurance market.
Enter federal taxpayers:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Flood_Insurance_Progr...
> Hurricane Milton
If a picturesque area is damaged, I can already editors making headlines about "Paradise Lost."
With any luck, it’ll move north and miss Tampa
the worse case scenario is if the eye makes landfall north of Tampa, as the counter clockwise rotation pushes more water in front of the front right quadrant. Tampa could be spared if it turns more south, but there are other communities that will more be impacted instead. There is no good outcome here…
Certainly unfortunate, thanks for the insight. My thinking was that north of Tampa to Tallahassee is less populated.
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I'm not sure what you're trying to say about "luck" here, it seems you're angrily attacking parent-poster for hoping the natural-disaster will miss a major city because of... Foolish optimism? Selfish desire?
Well, it he doing anything to make it go somewhere else? What kind of calculation is he using to figure out who to hit instead?