There's a slew of articles at the NYTimes on Helene. One is an interactive feature tracking the storm's destruction. As usual, that's best viewed noninteractively via Archive Today: <https://archive.is/8OODU>.
One location highlighted is the Unocoi County Hospital in Ewrin, TN, from which 50 people were evacuated from the roof by heliocopter after flooding.
The facility opened less than six years ago:
"New Unicoi County Hospital set to open in less than two weeks" (Fri, October 12th 2018)
"MSHA buys land for new Erwin hospital" (Jul 8, 2015)
Due diligence done prior to the signing of the original contract included studies to make sure, among other things, that the site has proper access to utilities, has sufficient road access, can support the hospital and other supporting facilities, and that the actual site of the hospital is not in a flood plain.
Financial information is sorely lacking from any coverage I've seen. Though the above article does note that "[p]lans call for the new 20-bed hospital to be built on 45 acres located at the south end of Erwin near Exit 40 just off I-26".
FEMA flood maps show the hospital in a zone with "0.2% annual chance flood hazard", a/k/a a 500-year flood. Map dates to 2008, and I suspect risks have changed:
"The flood map for the selected area is number47171C0152C, effective on9/3/2008"
This was a 1000 year flood. They probably did plan for 100/500 year floods in choosing the location of these facilities, but you can't reasonably build every critical structure outside 1000-year flood plains.
A 1000 year flood, perhaps, based on 2008-era flood risk maps. The facility was built within a 500 year (0.2% annual flood risk) basin. It's on a flat escarpment surrounded on three sides by the Nolichuky River, in a region characterised by steep terrain and narrow river valleys.
The sort of terrain in which if, or rather, when a major tropical storm (or its remnants) moves through will be subject to high levels of flooding.
I'm focusing on the Unicoi hospital largely as I'd heard of the heliocopter rescues from it in earlier broadcast news reports, but nothing of its specific situation, when it was planned and built (within the past decade), or the fact that what should have been a major feature of rescue and recovery capabilities was in fact a rescue and recovery target, both diverting resources from elsewhere and eliminating a local point from which aid could have been rendered and coordinated.
A much broader point is that this is all but certainly not an exceptional case, and that there are likely similar facilities, or other high-risk activities (e.g., nuclear fuel servicing, a half mile upriver) which are similarly at risk, in Tennessee, surrounding states, and elsewhere in and outside the US, and that a comprehensive review and remediation effort based on identifying risks, updating flood maps, and mitigating or moving both first-responder and other high-risk facilities outside flood or other risk areas be addressed.
Climate is changing rapidly, and one characteristic I'm observing are large, moisture-laden, slow-moving storms (Florence (2018), Harvey (2017), and of course Katrina (2005)) which dump immense amounts of rain over side areas. Harvey in particular dumped over 1000mm (40in) of rain over Houston and surrounding areas (peak: 1,539 mm / 60in),[1] which at one tonne per square metre of land actually caused the land in the region to measurably lower, as I recall. (I'm not finding a citation for this, though I'm reasonably certain of my memory. Total rainfall exceeded 16 trillion gallons, or ~63 billion tonnes: <https://apnews.com/article/science-floods-storms-hurricanes-...>.)
There are numerous communities which likely suffered similar impacts as Erwin, TN, and far more which are at risk of future extreme inundation events. And NOAA/NHC are presently five tropical storms in the Atlantic basin, another two in the Eastern Pacific.
Longer-range forecasts (through about 5 October) show potential for more Gulf-originating storms as well. We're hardly through this season yet. Rumours are that there will be other seasons afterward.
A month ago HN was discussing the lull in major storms so far during the 2024 hurricane season. As I wrote at the time, also noting that climates and storm conditions are complex systems with numerous factors:
Rapidly-developing storms with access to a great deal of thermal energy and tropical moisture increase the likelihood of major storms developing rapidly with little warning and severe impacts. That's no joke to deal with.
Helene largely matched that description, and has been[1] a major storm, landing as a category 4 (220 km/h / 140 mph winds) having intensified from tropical storm status only 28 hours before, with an immense storm area, engulfing multiple US states, dumping prodigious amounts of rain, and responsible so far for 70+ deaths and $22 billion in damages, with tallies likely to increase. The main saving grace has been that it was fast-moving at landfall minimising the worst of wind and rain damage. Its path slowed dramatically afterwards, and some of the worst damage has been reported well inland, in Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee, from heavy flooding.
As I write this, Nullschool's Earth Weather Visualiser is showing two large storms likely to develop in the Gulf by 4 October, with another major hurricane well off in the Atlantic:
The most westerly of the storms eye is indicated at the time of this post, that location may shift for those viewing the forecast later. The easterly storm may well hit Florida again.
Those who complained about the "alarmist" climate scientists and jouralists who "cried wolf" might take some heed.
There's a slew of articles at the NYTimes on Helene. One is an interactive feature tracking the storm's destruction. As usual, that's best viewed noninteractively via Archive Today: <https://archive.is/8OODU>.
One location highlighted is the Unocoi County Hospital in Ewrin, TN, from which 50 people were evacuated from the roof by heliocopter after flooding.
The facility opened less than six years ago:
"New Unicoi County Hospital set to open in less than two weeks" (Fri, October 12th 2018)
<https://wcyb.com/news/tennessee-news/new-unicoi-county-hospi...>
NB: it might be best not to build your county hospital in a flood plain:
Google Maps / Terrain: <https://www.google.com/maps/place/Unicoi+County+Hospital,+20...>
Or, for that matter, your US Navy Nuclear Fuel Services Inc., plant:
<https://www.google.com/maps/place/Nuclear+Fuel+Services+Inc/...>
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Fuel_Services>
Hurricane risks, 500 km / 300 mi inland.
More on Unicoi Co. Hospital:
"MSHA buys land for new Erwin hospital" (Jul 8, 2015)
Due diligence done prior to the signing of the original contract included studies to make sure, among other things, that the site has proper access to utilities, has sufficient road access, can support the hospital and other supporting facilities, and that the actual site of the hospital is not in a flood plain.
<https://www.wjhl.com/news/msha-buys-land-for-new-erwin-hospi...>
I smell lawsuit incoming in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ...
Financial information is sorely lacking from any coverage I've seen. Though the above article does note that "[p]lans call for the new 20-bed hospital to be built on 45 acres located at the south end of Erwin near Exit 40 just off I-26".
FEMA flood maps show the hospital in a zone with "0.2% annual chance flood hazard", a/k/a a 500-year flood. Map dates to 2008, and I suspect risks have changed:
"The flood map for the selected area is number47171C0152C, effective on9/3/2008"
<https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search?AddressQuery=Erwin%2C%20T...>
This was a 1000 year flood. They probably did plan for 100/500 year floods in choosing the location of these facilities, but you can't reasonably build every critical structure outside 1000-year flood plains.
A 1000 year flood, perhaps, based on 2008-era flood risk maps. The facility was built within a 500 year (0.2% annual flood risk) basin. It's on a flat escarpment surrounded on three sides by the Nolichuky River, in a region characterised by steep terrain and narrow river valleys.
The sort of terrain in which if, or rather, when a major tropical storm (or its remnants) moves through will be subject to high levels of flooding.
I'm focusing on the Unicoi hospital largely as I'd heard of the heliocopter rescues from it in earlier broadcast news reports, but nothing of its specific situation, when it was planned and built (within the past decade), or the fact that what should have been a major feature of rescue and recovery capabilities was in fact a rescue and recovery target, both diverting resources from elsewhere and eliminating a local point from which aid could have been rendered and coordinated.
A much broader point is that this is all but certainly not an exceptional case, and that there are likely similar facilities, or other high-risk activities (e.g., nuclear fuel servicing, a half mile upriver) which are similarly at risk, in Tennessee, surrounding states, and elsewhere in and outside the US, and that a comprehensive review and remediation effort based on identifying risks, updating flood maps, and mitigating or moving both first-responder and other high-risk facilities outside flood or other risk areas be addressed.
Climate is changing rapidly, and one characteristic I'm observing are large, moisture-laden, slow-moving storms (Florence (2018), Harvey (2017), and of course Katrina (2005)) which dump immense amounts of rain over side areas. Harvey in particular dumped over 1000mm (40in) of rain over Houston and surrounding areas (peak: 1,539 mm / 60in),[1] which at one tonne per square metre of land actually caused the land in the region to measurably lower, as I recall. (I'm not finding a citation for this, though I'm reasonably certain of my memory. Total rainfall exceeded 16 trillion gallons, or ~63 billion tonnes: <https://apnews.com/article/science-floods-storms-hurricanes-...>.)
There are numerous communities which likely suffered similar impacts as Erwin, TN, and far more which are at risk of future extreme inundation events. And NOAA/NHC are presently five tropical storms in the Atlantic basin, another two in the Eastern Pacific.
<https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc> <https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac>
Longer-range forecasts (through about 5 October) show potential for more Gulf-originating storms as well. We're hardly through this season yet. Rumours are that there will be other seasons afterward.
________________________________
Notes:
1. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Harvey#Texas_2>
A month ago HN was discussing the lull in major storms so far during the 2024 hurricane season. As I wrote at the time, also noting that climates and storm conditions are complex systems with numerous factors:
Rapidly-developing storms with access to a great deal of thermal energy and tropical moisture increase the likelihood of major storms developing rapidly with little warning and severe impacts. That's no joke to deal with.
<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41367512>
Helene largely matched that description, and has been[1] a major storm, landing as a category 4 (220 km/h / 140 mph winds) having intensified from tropical storm status only 28 hours before, with an immense storm area, engulfing multiple US states, dumping prodigious amounts of rain, and responsible so far for 70+ deaths and $22 billion in damages, with tallies likely to increase. The main saving grace has been that it was fast-moving at landfall minimising the worst of wind and rain damage. Its path slowed dramatically afterwards, and some of the worst damage has been reported well inland, in Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee, from heavy flooding.
Wikipedia has a continuously updated page on the effects of Helene as well: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene>
As I write this, Nullschool's Earth Weather Visualiser is showing two large storms likely to develop in the Gulf by 4 October, with another major hurricane well off in the Atlantic:
<https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/10/04/1200Z/wind/surface/...>
The most westerly of the storms eye is indicated at the time of this post, that location may shift for those viewing the forecast later. The easterly storm may well hit Florida again.
Those who complained about the "alarmist" climate scientists and jouralists who "cried wolf" might take some heed.
<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41366911>
________________________________
Notes:
1. I'm avoiding use of the past tense as though Helene has officially dissipated, it appears that the relic low will re-form out over the subtropical Atlantic to become a storm off the Eastern seaboard near the Chesapeake Bay, before finally dissipating for good: <https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/10/03/0400Z/wind/surface/...>. Such "zombie storms" are being noted increasingly, with Hurricane John being another example: <https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/back-hurricane-streng...>.
Archive / paywall: <https://archive.is/CaRow>